Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AAVE prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 98.499505 113.011914 130.142761 152.198628 180.366982 215.908784 265.482370
2024-10-13 75.966962 92.671410 114.426560 145.926622 192.452969 262.656174 386.369765
2024-10-20 65.882073 83.694328 108.500287 147.618286 212.394412 326.587976 581.079406
2024-10-27 58.326535 76.204517 102.310854 146.166960 225.630066 385.724696 835.644301
2024-11-03 54.611392 73.333074 101.991913 153.392845 256.170657 498.992010 1445.128499
2024-11-10 53.624740 74.210748 107.435478 171.773955 317.286046 746.811814 3795.893952
2024-11-17 49.610089 69.754239 103.200921 170.788897 335.149462 896.642575 7840.254843
2024-11-24 46.365795 66.118767 99.761686 170.465695 354.796826 1088.657889 22942.943422
2024-12-01 43.032966 61.970505 94.805463 165.775347 360.597030 1237.784166 96506.819588
2024-12-08 40.491492 58.901959 91.419566 163.816452 374.046171 1468.320669 NaN
2024-12-15 38.652423 56.854968 89.673063 165.229395 399.584109 1870.972698 NaN
2024-12-22 36.379616 53.857741 85.750244 160.650408 402.535884 2124.905452 NaN
2024-12-29 35.619927 53.617582 87.501240 171.405360 474.588370 3724.849267 NaN
2025-01-05 33.238890 50.287348 82.693517 164.281988 470.146777 4312.445652 NaN
2025-01-12 31.900396 48.745424 81.379228 166.327862 510.088960 6857.060886 NaN
2025-01-19 30.394650 46.767297 78.910794 164.594829 531.528852 10173.897028 NaN
2025-01-26 29.799002 46.436770 79.914313 173.247101 620.427053 33186.433742 NaN
2025-02-02 30.061975 47.756358 84.730557 195.427344 840.185094 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 28.861340 46.115046 82.584880 194.232582 888.881067 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 27.807540 44.689387 80.788060 193.840723 948.266481 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 26.559418 42.796276 77.699681 188.162337 950.292602 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 25.574467 41.376798 75.624267 185.795421 987.449966 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 24.860580 40.462698 74.686185 187.502393 1079.287675 NaN NaN